Solo wins still happen
Hobbyists occasionally hit full Bitcoin blocks solo—one miner with ~126 TH/s grabbed an entire block reward in 2022. Expected value is tiny, but luck is lumpy.
Outlier luck
Bitcoin Mining Profitability Calculator
Miner and network inputs
Loading Bitcoin data…
Choose a preset, then adjust any value to match your measured pool hashrate and wall power.
Enter watts, not kW: 3.51 kW = 3,510 W. Include PSU and cooling losses.
Enter dollars, not cents: 8¢/kWh = 0.08. Use your all-in rate.
Loaded automatically in Bitcoin mode; still editable for what-if tests.
Include base subsidy only (ignore fees), unless you choose to add an estimate below.
Usually 0–4%; must remain below 100% with stale rate.
Use 100 only if the miner truly runs continuously.
USD/BTC loads in Bitcoin mode; manual overrides are kept.
If you want to include a typical transaction-fee component.
Total purchase cost for the one miner or complete rig represented above—not a per-unit cost.
Estimated network hashrate: loading…
Enter valid inputs to see instant results.
Expected coins/day (Bitcoin-style): \(\displaystyle \text{Coins/day} = (R + F)\times \frac{H \times 86400}{D \times 2^{32}}\). We then apply pool/stale/uptime factor \( \phi = (1 - \text{fee} - \text{stale}) \times \text{uptime} \). Electricity cost/day: \(\displaystyle C_{\text{elec}} = \frac{P_{\text{W}}}{1000}\times 24 \times c_{\text{kWh}} \times \text{uptime}\).
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Worked Bitcoin ASIC example (July 11, 2026)
This illustrative case uses an Antminer S21 Pro at 234 TH/s, 3,510 W, $0.08/kWh, a 2% pool fee, 1% stale shares, and 99.5% uptime. Click Load dated example to combine those miner assumptions with the latest available BTC price and difficulty and see the resulting daily profit. It is an example, not financial advice.
Data and assumptions
Live Bitcoin source: BTC/USD price and difficulty are requested from the public mempool.space API. Network hashrate is estimated from difficulty assuming 600-second blocks. Base subsidy is set to 3.125 BTC. Refresh status appears in the calculator.
The calculator does not forecast future difficulty or include pool luck, transaction-fee variance unless entered, downtime beyond your uptime input, taxes, hosting fees, repairs, cooling not included in wall power, or firmware behavior.
- Live values remain editable. Override price, difficulty, reward, or fees for your own scenario.
- Pool mining vs solo: Formula gives expected payout. Solo variance is high; pools smooth it out with fees.
- Stales & downtime: Real fleets rarely hit 100% uptime; add a small stale/invalid percent to model real yields.
- Fees per block: Optional extra coin per block on top of the base subsidy to reflect average transaction fees.
- Fiat outputs are optional: Enter a coin price to see revenue and profit in your currency.
How Mining Profitability Works: Hashrate, Difficulty, Power & Costs
Mining profitability is the balance between expected block rewards and your operating costs, most notably electricity. This calculator uses the standard Bitcoin-style proof-of-work relation: expected coins/day = block reward × (hashes per second × 86,400) ÷ (difficulty × 232). From there, we adjust for real-world elements such as pool fees, stale shares, and uptime, and subtract electricity costs based on your power draw (Watts), hours per day, and price per kWh.
Key Inputs You Control
- Hashrate: Your effective pool-side hashrate in H/s (H, kH, MH, GH, TH, PH). This is the single biggest driver of expected rewards.
- Power (W): Average wall consumption, including PSU losses and any fans/auxiliary devices.
- Electricity cost (per kWh): Use your all-in rate: energy + transmission + taxes/fees. If you have time-of-use rates, consider your dominant operating window.
- Difficulty & Block Reward: Enter the current difficulty and the base subsidy. Optionally include a typical fee component (coin/block) if you want to account for transaction fees.
- Pool fee, stale %, uptime %: Pools charge a small fee and not all shares are accepted. Uptime captures maintenance, network hiccups, and power events.
- Coin price & hardware cost (optional): If provided, the tool shows fiat revenue/profit and a simple ROI estimate.
What Changes Profitability Most?
- Network difficulty: Higher difficulty means each hash contributes less expected reward. Difficulty is dynamic and can move materially over weeks.
- Block reward & fees: Rewards change with halving events (for Bitcoin-like chains) and fees fluctuate with network demand.
- ASIC efficiency: Better J/TH (hashes per joule) lowers your electricity cost per unit of hashrate. Tuning/firmware can improve efficiency at the expense of hashrate; test both ways.
- Power price: Even small changes in $/kWh can flip daily profit from positive to negative. Hosting contracts and demand charges matter.
Understanding Pool vs. Solo & Variance
The formula gives an expectation, not a guarantee. Solo mining has extreme variance—long stretches without a block, then a windfall. Pools reduce variance by distributing rewards according to contributed work, minus fees. The calculator’s “solo time to find a block” is a statistical expectation (1 ÷ blocks/day) and should not be interpreted as a schedule.
Electricity, Cooling & Site Effects
For many miners, electricity is 70–90% of operating cost. Consider:
- Cooling overhead: Fans, HVAC, immersion pumps, and heat rejection add real watts beyond the nameplate of the miner.
- Ambient conditions: High inlet temperatures reduce efficiency or force throttling. Dust increases maintenance and downtime.
- Demand charges & TOU: Some utilities bill peak demand or vary price by hour/season. A weighted average $/kWh gives a more honest picture.
Sensitivity & Scenario Testing
Profitability is highly sensitive to difficulty, reward, and power price. Try running multiple “what-if” scenarios: +/- 10% hashrate from firmware tuning; alternative electricity quotes; a future block reward; or a different difficulty. Watching how daily profit and breakeven power price respond will help you set thresholds for expansion or shutdown.
Formulas Shown (for transparency)
Coins/day: \( (R + F) \times \frac{H \times 86400}{D \times 2^{32}} \) where
\(R\)=block reward (coin), \(F\)=avg. fees per block (coin), \(H\)=hashes/s, \(D\)=difficulty.
Effective factor: \( \phi = (1 - \text{fee} - \text{stale}) \times \text{uptime} \).
Electricity/day: \( \frac{P_{\mathrm{W}}}{1000} \times 24 \times c_{\mathrm{kWh}} \times \text{uptime} \).
Limitations & Good Hygiene
- Live data is a current snapshot, not a prediction or financial advice.
- Results are estimates; real yields vary with pool luck, partial shares, firmware behavior, and site conditions.
- Re-run the calculator when any input (difficulty, reward, fees, price, power) changes meaningfully.
Tip: Efficiency in H/J (or J/TH) is a handy yardstick across models and settings. Lower J/TH usually wins—provided uptime and cooling hold up.
Bitcoin mining profitability FAQ
Is Bitcoin mining profitable in 2026?
It can be, but ASIC efficiency, electricity price, BTC price, difficulty, pool fees, and uptime decide the outcome. Test the downside scenarios above and treat results as estimates.
How much Bitcoin can I mine per day?
Your expected BTC/day is your share of Bitcoin network work multiplied by daily block rewards, then adjusted for fees, stales, and uptime. The headline result updates as you type.
What electricity price breaks even?
It is daily mining revenue divided by daily energy use. If your all-in rate exceeds the displayed breakeven $/kWh, electricity alone costs more than estimated revenue.
Why do results change after difficulty adjustments?
Bitcoin retargets difficulty every 2,016 blocks. Higher difficulty means the same miner earns a smaller expected share.
Should I use pool or solo mining?
Pools provide smaller, steadier payouts after fees. Solo mining has extreme variance and may take much longer than its statistical average to find a block.
What is J/TH?
Joules per terahash equals watts divided by TH/s. Lower J/TH is more efficient and usually more valuable where electrical capacity is limited.
Why do my pool payouts differ from the calculator?
Pool luck, payout method, fee accounting, transaction fees, rejected shares, downtime, and actual wall performance all create differences from an expected-value model.
5 Fun Facts about Mining Profitability
Difficulty moves in jumps
Bitcoin difficulty only retargets every 2016 blocks (~2 weeks). If hashrate surges between adjustments, profitability can compress until the next retarget.
Timing quirk
Heat can pay twice
Repurposing waste heat for greenhouses, pools, or space heating can turn “waste” watts into useful BTUs—effectively lowering your real electricity cost.
Energy reuse
Halvings double the bar
Each halving slices block subsidy in half, so breakeven efficiency (J/TH) effectively needs to double to stay even—undervolting/underclocking often matters more post-halving.
Reward crunch
1 J/TH adds up
Saving just 1 J/TH on a 100 TH/s rig cuts about 2.4 kWh per day—small firmware tweaks can matter as much as a cheaper power contract.
Efficiency math