A 2008 plot twist
CIP held for decades—until the 2008 crisis. Dollar funding stress created a “basis” that made forwards diverge from theory.
Tip Use Covered to price a forward from spot + interest rates. Use Implied to back out a rate from spot & a market forward. UIP provides a simple expected spot from rate differentials (theory, not a forecast).
Let S be the spot rate, rd domestic, rf foreign, and T years.
With growth factors Gd, Gf from your compounding choice:
F = S × (Gd / Gf)
Given S, F, tenor T, and one rate (rd or rf) with compounding, solve the other from
F / S = Gd / Gf.
A simple UIP view uses the same growth ratio for an expected future spot:
E[ST] ≈ S × (Gd / Gf)
Notes: Match your compounding and day-count to quoted rates. CIP is a pricing identity under no-arbitrage assumptions; UIP is an economic hypothesis (not a forecast).
Prices the FX forward from spot and interest rates: F = S × (Gd/Gf). If a quoted forward deviates from this, there’s a covered arbitrage opportunity in the model (in practice, frictions and basis can exist).
Given S and F (same quote convention) plus one leg’s rate and tenor/compounding, you can back out the other leg’s implied rate for consistency with CIP.
UIP uses rate differentials to form an expected future spot. It is a widely taught hypothesis but often performs poorly for short horizons—treat as illustrative only.
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CIP held for decades—until the 2008 crisis. Dollar funding stress created a “basis” that made forwards diverge from theory.
Positive domestic–foreign rate spreads show up as forward points. Flip the quote convention and that premium becomes a discount.
A tiny 0.25% rate gap barely moves a 1M forward, but can swing a 5Y forward by several percent—time stretches parity effects.
When a currency has negative rates, its forward can sit below spot even if it’s “strong”—parity cares about carry, not sentiment.
CIP forward levels are a no-arbitrage price, not a guess of where spot will land. Markets often trade far from that path.